Supply-side Workforce Modelling

WSP developed a wide range of supply-side models for clinical workforce over the period 2009 to early 2016. This work was overseen by a Workforce Modelling Collaborative, a partnership between WSP and the LETBs. During 2015/16 WSP supported HEE in arriving at recommendations for its Large Speciality Programme. Because all 13 then LETBs collaborated in data gathering and calibration of models we were able to marry bottom-up distinctives at a LETB level with top-down requirements at an all-England level.

The final outputs from the Large Specialty Programme include:

The models underpinning these reports were made available to HEE in an online collaborative simulation platform (WSP's ‘CSP’), which enabled local planners to benchmark their position against other LETBs whilst maintaining a focus on the overall impact of different commissioning decisions for training numbers.

How do the models work?

The models:

  • Identify the number of trainees completing their training each year along with the number of posts that will be required per year following retirement or departure from post
  • Consider the impact of the changing workforce in terms of age and gender split
  • Highlight the number of training places that need to be commissioned annually to meet projected demand
  • Provide an estimate of the number of trainees who are not able to find an appointment, inter LETB migration, and CCT holders who take up other activities
  • Provide the context within which local discussion about strategy and partnership working can be undertaken

The work of the collaborative involved:

  • engagement with clinicians;
  • drawing together the relevant intelligence;
  • designing fit for purpose models;
  • gaining sign off by stakeholders;
  • calibrating the models and benchmarking across the collaborative using leading technology.

Workforce Planning Simulation